Impact of cry wolf effects on social preparedness and the efficiency of flood early warning systems

Abstract. To improve the efficiency of flood early warning systems (FEWS), it is important to understand interactions between natural and social systems. The high level trust in authorities experts necessary likeliness individuals take preparedness actions responding warnings. Despite many efforts develop dynamic model human water socio-hydrology, no socio-hydrological models explicitly simulate collective FEWS. Here, we stylized flood, memory, FEWS, warnings by extending existing model. We realistically cry wolf effect which false alarms undermine credibility make difficult induce actions. found that (1) considering dynamics FEWS more technological society with infrequent events than green frequent events; (2) as scientific skill predict improved, gets sensitive behavior trust, so forecasters need determine their threshold aspects.